Landscape predictors of human\u2013leopard conflicts within multi-use areas of the Himalayan region

Dipanjan Naha,Marco Heurich,Gopal Singh Rawat,Sambandam Sathyakumar,Suraj Kumar Dash,Abhisek Chettri,Gaurav Sonker,Pooja Chaudhary

doi:10.1038/s41598-020-67980-w

Dipanjan Naha, Marco Heurich + Show 6 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67980-w

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Abstract

Conflict with humans is a significant source of mortality for large carnivores globally. With rapid loss of forest cover and anthropogenic impacts on their habitats, large carnivores are forced to occupy multi-use landscapes outside protected areas. We investigated 857 attacks on livestock in eastern Himalaya and 375 attacks in western Himalaya by leopards between 2015 and 2018. Multivariate analyses were conducted to identify the landscape features which increased the probability of livestock depredation by leopards. The risk of a leopard killing livestock increased within a heterogeneous landscape matrix comprising of both closed and open habitats (very dense forests, moderate dense forests, open forests, scrubland and non-forests). We used the results to map potential human–leopard conflict hotspots across parts of the Indian Himalayan region. Our spatial risk maps indicate pockets in the eastern, central and western part of eastern Himalaya and the central, northern part of western Himalaya as hotspots of human–leopard conflicts. Most of the attacks occurred when livestock were grazing freely within multi-use areas without supervision of a herder. Our results suggest that awareness about high risk areas, supervised grazing, and removing vegetation cover around human settlements should be initiated to reduce predation by leopards.

Highlights

Conflict with humans is a significant source of mortality for large carnivores globally
Results of the generalized linear models (GLMs) model with binomial structure suggests that landscape features such as area of non-forest (β = 7.81E−08; 95% CI = 3.62E−09–1.4082E−07), scrubland (β = 1.88E−06; 95% CI = 7.7064E−07–2.98936E−06), open forests (β = 2.56E−07; 95% CI = 1.8152E−07–3.30284E−07), very dense forests (β = 1.98E−07; 95% CI = 1.13328E−07–2.82672E−07), area of water (β = − 1.61E−06; 95% CI = 5.0848E−07–2.71E−06), distance to protected areas (β = − 1.70E−04; 95% CI = 0.0001–0.0002), nightlight (β = − 7.45E−02; 95% CI = 0.0137–0.1352) and altitude (β = − 5.26E−03; 95% CI = 0.0033–0.0072) were the best predictors for leopard attacks on livestock in North Bengal (Table 1, Supplementary Table S1)
Results of the GLM model with binomial structure suggests that landscape features such as area of moderate dense forests (β = 2.95E−07; 95% CI = 1.21E−07–4.70E−07), open forests (β = 4.62E−07; 95% CI = 2.27E−07–6.97E−07), scrub (β = 5.58E−07; 95% CI = 8.30E−08–1.03E−06), non-forests (β = 3.38E−07; 95% CI = 1.92E−07–4.85E−07) and the distance to protected areas (β = 3.11E−05; 95% CI = 7.83E−065.44E−05) were the best predictors of livestock predation by leopard in Pauri Garhwal (Table 2, Supplementary Table S3)

Summary

Introduction

Conflict with humans is a significant source of mortality for large carnivores globally. Large carnivores are apex predators and their lethal and non-lethal effects have strong implications for ecosystem structure and functioning They have prominent cultural reverence in several human societies and act as flagship species for global conservation campaigns[1]. The quality of the larger multi-use landscapes in terms of the availability of suitable habitat, abundance of wild prey, extent of human presence and tolerance of local communities determine future survival of these species Such shared landscapes represent a major proportion of the geographic distribution of large carnivores g lobally[9]. Increasing human populations, declines in wild prey and changes in land use patterns have resulted in fragmented, heterogeneous resource limited landscapes for carnivores[10] Such anthropogenic impacts on ecosystems have forced carnivores to frequent areas near human settlements, kill livestock and local communities have retaliated through wii.gov.in. Location of grazing pastures close to protected reserves, and lack of animal shelters impact the extent of predation on livestock[10]

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