Landscape predictions of western balsam bark beetle activity implicate warm temperatures, a longer growing season, and drought in widespread irruptions across British Columbia

Abstract

Warming temperatures and drought are leading to unprecedented irruptions of forest insects worldwide. Altered climatic regimes have the potential to allow native forest insects to express novel behaviors and expand in latitude and elevation beyond their hypothesized thermal tolerances. Yet, disentangling the drivers of novel behaviors and range expansions is difficult due to cross-scalar interactions that dictate forest insect population dynamics. We investigated the irruptive dynamics of western balsam bark beetle (Dryocoetes confusus Swaine), which undergoes intermittent, long-lasting, but low-severity outbreaks in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa Hook) forests. We compiled data from 1998 to 2019 across British Columbia, Canada, at 1 and 16 km2 resolutions to describe the spatiotemporal structure of beetle outbreaks, predict the landscape susceptibility to outbreaks, explain when outbreaks occur based on bioclimatic drivers, explore whether beetle populations exhibit self-driving growth, and determine whether the extent of outbreaks has increased. Overall, we found that outbreaks occur in discrete clusters and are synchronous at distances of 10–25 km. Further, we found that landscape susceptibility to beetle outbreaks was best explained by latitude*elevation (i.e., the product of latitude [m] and elevation [m] Z-standardized) and volume of fir (m3/ha; >17.5 cm size class; >100 yrs.) both within 8 km and each pixel. Meanwhile, a longer growing season, increased growing degree day accumulation, and drought best explained when outbreaks occurred. Further, we did not find evidence to suggest that beetle populations exhibit self-driving population growth. Finally, we found that the extent of beetle outbreaks has increased over the last 20 years and that increases in landscape susceptibility primarily occurred at higher latitude*elevations and were best explained by an increase in the mean growing season and degree day accumulation. In other words, abnormally warm temperatures have facilitated a northward and upward expansion of western balsam bark beetle. Collectively, these results serve as the first quantification of the spatiotemporal dynamics of this understudied insect and support previous modeling efforts to investigate the multi-scale drivers of western balsam bark beetle outbreaks. We propose that future work should identify specific supercooling points, the relationship between temperature and development rate, and how the relatively high within-stand variability in age and size class of subalpine fir affect the irruptive dynamics of this understudied bark beetle.