Abstract
Monitoring landscape pattern change can provide spatial explicit basis for future landscape management. The future socioeconomic and climate change drivers should be systematically combined in landscape pattern monitoring, while they are often regarded as independent parameters in landscape monitoring models. This study sought to project the detailed landscape pattern change based on landscape composition and configuration in Tibet by 2030, and combined the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results showed area of the unused land and forest will reduce by a minimum standard of 11.42 × 104 and 9.04 × 104 km2 from 2010 to 2030, respectively. Other land use types will increase, and the highest increase in grassland will be 9.30 × 105 km2. Combined SSP1 and RCP2.6 scenario show high landscape aggregation and low edge density on cultivated land, urban land and grassland in Tibet as a whole. However, in typical cultivated and urban landscape, the abovementioned rule is appeared in the combined SSP4 and RCP6.0 scenario. These findings stress the importance of systematically modeling the socioeconomic demand and climate change in landscape pattern monitoring, and using both landscape composition and configuration indexes for scenario evaluation.
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