Abstract
We introduce a novel econometric approach to estimate economic pest control feedbacks within agroecological systems, using discrete choice endogenous sorting models. We apply this approach to deployment of transgenic Bt maize in the Philippines. We show with basic theory how areawide pest suppression from largescale Bt maize deployment attenuates farmers' demand for this technology. Econometric results support this hypothesis and imply long-run demand for the Bt trait is price-inelastic, contrasting with price-elastic demand estimated from a model without feedback. Investigating whether this feedback truly derives from areawide pest suppression, we analyze farmers' pest infestation expectations and find expected damages are significantly reduced by higher areawide Bt deployment. We discuss implications of these findings and other potential applications of the econometric approach to study coupled biological and economic systems.
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