Abstract

As species face rapid environmental change, we can build resilient populations through restoration projects that incorporate predicted future climates into seed sourcing decisions. Eucalyptus melliodora is a foundation species of a critically endangered community in Australia that is a target for restoration. We examined genomic and phenotypic variation to make empirical based recommendations for seed sourcing. We examined isolation by distance and isolation by environment, determining high levels of gene flow extending for 500 km and correlations with climate and soil variables. Growth experiments revealed extensive phenotypic variation both within and among sampling sites, but no site-specific differentiation in phenotypic plasticity. Model predictions suggest that seed can be sourced broadly across the landscape, providing ample diversity for adaptation to environmental change. Application of our landscape genomic model to E. melliodora restoration projects can identify genomic variation suitable for predicted future climates, thereby increasing the long term probability of successful restoration.

Highlights

  • Species around the globe face rapidly changing environments, often in combination with habitat loss and fragmentation

  • A second preliminary principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) identified an additional five outlier samples that we considered sufficiently differentiated from the main E. melliodora cluster to merit removal from downstream analyses (Figure 1—figure supplement 3)

  • The map suggests that there is a lower availability of seed sources to match the northern reforestation site. These analyses suggest that for seed sourcing in woodland restoration, a model-based approach incorporating genomic variation, geographic distance, and environmental variables would allow for more genetic diversity and enable better matching of the selected genotypes to current and predicted future environmental conditions at the reforestation site

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Summary

Introduction

Species around the globe face rapidly changing environments, often in combination with habitat loss and fragmentation. These factors are expected to have a negative impact on biodiversity (Lindenmayer et al, 2010). Three processes enable species to survive altered conditions: migration, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity (Aitken and Whitlock, 2013; Aitken et al, 2008; Hoffmann et al, 2015; Nicotra et al, 2010). We can help populations to become better adapted to future environmental conditions by assisting migration of gene pools across the landscape (Aitken and Whitlock, 2013; Aitken et al, 2008). We can aid populations to survive in situ by ensuring that sufficient genomic variation exists for adaptation to changing environments

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