Abstract
Land use change has large effects on natural ecosystems, which is considered to be the main factor in eco-environment change. We analyzed the future characters of land use change by the CLUE-S model and explored landscape ecological risk responses to land use change by the landscape ecological risk index method. Using the Luanhe River Basin as a case study, we simulated future land use change from 2010 to 2030 under 3 scenarios (i.e., trend, high economic growth, and ecological security), and identified the hotspots of land use change. Afterward, we quantitatively investigated the degree of land use development and landscape ecological risk patterns that have occured since 2000 and that are expected to occur until 2030. Results revealed that, under the three scenarios, construction land and forest are expanding mainly at the expense of agriculture land and grassland. The hotspots of land use change are located in the vicinity of Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District of Chengde City in the midstream of the Luanhe River Basin, where urbanization has been strong since 2000 and is projected to continue that way until 2030. During this time period, hotspots of land use development have been gradually transferring from the downstream to the midstream since 2000 and, again, is expected to continue that way until 2030, which will impact the spatial distribution of landscape ecological risk. We found that the landscape ecological risk of the entire basin has shown a negative trend. However, a few areas still have serious ecological risk, which are mainly located in the east of upstream (Duolun County and Weichang County), the middle region (Shuangluan and Shuangqiao District, Chengde County, and Xinglong County), and the downstream (Qinglong County). These can provide key information for land use management, and for helping to prepare future eco-environmental policies in the Luanhe River Basin.
Highlights
Land use and land cover (LUCC) change have been considered an important issue of global environmental change [1]
We simulated the patterns of land use that might emerge in 2030, and explored the hotspots of land use change, the hotspots of land use development degree, and critical areas of landscape ecological risk in 2030 in the Luanhe River Basin, which was the critical base of information for making suitable land use planning
We predicted land use patterns of the Luanhe River Basin from 2010 to 2030 under three different scenarios, and obtained excellent accuracy: the overall accuracy of the CLUE-S model was over 95%; Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) of all land use types were more than 0.8
Summary
Land use and land cover (LUCC) change have been considered an important issue of global environmental change [1]. Due to the possibility of simulating different scenarios, the CLUE-S model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) is considered an excellent tool for providing decision makers with full support to improve land use management [4,7]. The CLUE-S model is a spatially explicit, dynamic, land use change model, and developed for the analysis of land use in small regions. It is based on the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) model, which simulates land use change by empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors. In China, the CLUE-S model performs well in many regions, such as Beijing [17,18], Hong Kong [4], Yantai [19], Hun-Taizi River Watershed [20], and others [8]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
