Landing among the stars: Risks and benefits of Predator Free 2050 and other ambitious conservation targets

Abstract

Globally, ambitious goals, or ‘moonshots’, have been used in a range of policy interventions. In conservation, such targets may bring numerous auxiliary benefits, such that policies can be beneficial even if targets are not met. Yet there are also potential harms if targets are not met. We explore these trade-offs with reference to Aotearoa New Zealand's Predator Free 2050 (PF2050) government policy – commonly described as the nation's ‘moonshot’ – which aims to eradicate possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), rats (Rattus norvegicus, R. rattus, R. exulans) and mustelids (Mustela erminea, M. nivalis, M. furo) nationwide by 2050. While the reasoning of such moonshots is that ‘failure’ may still encompass a great deal of benefit, key PF2050 policy and public discussion includes little consideration of either the possible harms or benefits of falling short of nationwide eradication. Drawing on qualitative research with stakeholders and researchers, we show that many people are privately thinking through the potential ecological, financial, animal welfare, and social implications – positive and negative – if PF2050's targets are not reached. We propose that there are benefits to taking such thinking into the public sphere. Furthermore, we highlight the importance of extending ‘failure response planning’ to encompass ethical and social considerations as well as technical.