Landfalling Droughts: Global Tracking of Moisture Deficits From the Oceans Onto Land

Abstract

AbstractDroughts threaten food, energy, and water security, causing death and displacement of millions of people and billions of dollars in damages. However, there are still important gaps in the understanding of drought mechanisms and behaviors, inhibiting the accuracy of early‐warning systems designed to protect communities worldwide. We use an object‐tracking algorithm to track clusters of precipitation‐minus‐evaporation moisture deficits across land and ocean areas of the globe from 1981–2018. This analysis reveals a new type of “landfalling drought” that originates over the ocean and “migrates” onto land. We find that 16% of droughts that affected the continents worldwide from 1981–2018 were landfalling droughts. These droughts were significantly larger (220–425%) and more intense (4–30%)—and grew (253–285%) and intensified (9–28%) faster—than droughts that developed solely over the land or ocean. To identify potential underlying mechanisms, we analyze moisture transport associated with landfalling droughts over western North America. We find that landfalling droughts in this region are associated with anomalously anticyclonic atmospheric pressure patterns that reduce moisture fluxes over the Pacific Ocean toward the continent. By advancing understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution of droughts, our findings offer the potential to improve seasonal‐scale prediction and long‐term projection of global drought risks.