Land use/land cover dynamics study and prediction in jaipur city using CA markov model integrated with road network

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover (LULC) dynamics analysis is critical and should be done regularly. It draws attention to LULC developments that can be addressed before they become unmanageable disasters or circumstances. For the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, LULC change analysis was carried out in Jaipur City, Rajasthan, India. The LULC maps were created using Landsat data through a visual interpretation technique at a scale of 1:50,000. These maps were classified into vegetation, agriculture, built-up areas, barren land, and water bodies. LULC was predicted by extrapolating the current LULC change pattern. Using a Cellular Automata-Markov Chain Model (CA Markov) integrated with road network, the current LULC change trend was extrapolated and utilized to estimate the LULC map for the years 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050. The strategy was validated by estimating LULC change for 2020 and comparing it to the actual LULC map for that year. The urban area contributed to 4. 75% in 2000 of the total area in Jaipur city. The percentage of area under urban class has increased to 9.68% in 2010 and 12.96% in 2020. The prediction based on 2000–2010 and 2010–2020 has shown an unprecedented decadal growth in the built-up area till 2050. The prediction based on the 2000–2010 period has shown a rise of 92.04% during 2020–2030, 77.13% during 2030–2040 and, 64.34% during 2040–2050. The prediction based on the 2010–2020 period has shown a rise of 102.42% during 2020–2030, 73.56% during 2030–2040 and, 54.47% during 2040–2050. This study is, therefore, calls for policy interventions to manage population and urban growth.