Land use/land cover change and statistical modelling of cultivated land change drivers in Nigeria

Abstract

In recent decades, human activities have significantly influenced land use/land cover. Identifying pattern changes in regional land use/land cover and their drivers is crucial for land use planning and management decision making. This study aims to (1) describe land use/land cover changes that have taken place in Nigeria in the study period of 10 years (2000–2010), (2) determine the factors that drive those changes with emphasis on transition to cultivated land use and (3) examine the spatiotemporal intensity of land use. The study utilized the GlobeLand30 land cover datasets produced by the National Geomatics Center of China. We used the spatial calculating analysis model to analyse land use/land cover change, logistic regression to model drivers of cultivated land expansion and land use intensity comprehensive index model to examine the intensity of land use. Our results revealed that (1) conversions to cultivated land dominate the land use/land cover change processes and expansion was largely at the detriment of the grassland, shrubland and forests; (2) biophysical, socio-economic and proximity factors are significant determinants of transition to cultivated land use. Population density is negatively related to cultivated land expansion, which suggests labour scarcity in the agricultural sector that can consequently result into low productivity and (3) significant discrepancies exist in the intensity of land use between the southern and northern regions of the country. Policy measures aimed at improving agricultural productivity remain one of the best ways to reduce pressure on increasingly scarce land resource and conserve natural ecosystems in Nigeria.