Land Use Simulation of Qiantang River Basin At Optimal Spatial Scale Based on PLUS Model

Abstract

The coordinated spatial planning of the nation's territory can be accomplished on the basis of future land use change simulation, and increasing forecast accuracy can aid in properly identifying the trend of these changes. To stimulate the future space distribution in the Qiantang River Basin in a refined manner, this paper selects data on land cover and related influencing factors for the years 2010 and 2020, and screens out the optimal spatial scale by integrating various precision indicators such as Kappa and OA. On this basis, the PLUS model is applied to simulates the regional spatial pattern in 2030. The consequences show that a 30 m cell and a 3×3 neighborhood are the optimal spatial scales for simulating space changes in the region. The simulation results have high accuracy. In the Qiantang River Basin, it is anticipated that by 2030, forest land will predominate over all other land uses, with development land moving further from the city's core. The study believes that in the future, the prediction of land development in the Qiantang River Basin can be improved in terms of stimulation model and accuracy, so as to effectively serve the regional land space planning.