Land Use Scenarios

Abstract

The book describes a scenario approach to landscape planning using a large case study in the area between Orange County and San Diego, California, preserved partially by the presence of major military bases. The book is targeted at researchers, landscape and county planners, environmental consultants, NGOs and State Agencies, and geographers at all academic and student levels. The book presents a real scenario analysis in full detail from conceptualization, through preparatory data collation, development of scenarios and alternative futures, impacts in terms of hydrology, air quality and biology, and a fi nal synthesis. In this respect it differs from most other books on the market, which are either a compilation of many case studies in individual chapters, or a textbook style treatise on everything to do with scenario analysis (e.g., Alcamo, 2008). Bergh et al. (2004) produced a detailed volume on scenario analysis, but the case study topic of wetlands was very different. The authors share the chapter writing according to expertise. The fi rst chapter gives some background to scenario analysis and provides a conceptual approach to this case study, classifi ed according to the schema presented by Steinitz (1990). The second chapter describes the study region and the potential issues arising from regional development. The third chapter examines past scenario-based studies of military installations and their regions, and Chapter Four goes on to provide the broad regional context for the military installations. The fi fth chapter describes the combined land use/land cover characterization for the region that is used as the base for the scenarios. In Chapters 6 and 7, the authors outline the scenario construction process based on the method of Schwartz (1991), and then describe the four scenarios and present the alternative futures in the form of a “retrospective narrative” of all the drivers, responses, and behaviors that occurred. The next three chapters examine in turn the hydrological, air quality and biological consequences associated with the alternative futures. The results of these analyses are presented as a comprehensive series of gray-scale maps, a subset of which are published in a 16 leaf color section. The text states that color versions of the maps are available at an online website. However, when checked, the website was empty except for a statement that it would be the “Future Home” for these maps. More than 200 pages of the book are devoted to a detailed treatment of the biological consequences of the alternative futures represented in analysis of vegetation, ecological pattern, species richness and the impact on habitats for 13 individual species which have endangered or threatened status, indicator value, habitat insensitivity, rarity or a combination of these. The book is closed out by a relatively short discussion and conclusions chapter, wherein comparisons are made between scenarios for different housing patterns and habitat impacts