Land Use Scenario DevelopeR

Abstract

Land use models are generally recognized as useful tools for forecasting land use inputs to transportation models and for analyzing the land use effects of transportation projects. Unfortunately, the complexity of most land use models gets in the way of their widespread use by planning agencies. The Land Use Scenario DevelopeR (LUSDR) incorporates most of the land use behavior and policy sensitivity desired in a land use model, yet it has a simple structure and manageable data requirements. LUSDR operates at the level of individual households and employment establishments and microsimulates location decisions of land developments. The model produces a synthetic population of households with the attributes of size, workers, age of household head, income, dwelling tenure, and dwelling type. Households are packaged into residential developments. Employment is calculated from workers and allocated to economic sectors, employment establishments, and business developments (e.g., shopping centers, office parks). Residential and business developments are allocated to zones by an iterative process that identifies candidate zones on the basis of land availability and plan compatibility, chooses zones by using a location model and reconciles land supply and demand in each zone through a bidding process. The model is being used in a long-range land use visioning study in a small metropolitan planning organization and is planned for use in a number of applications in Oregon.