LAND-USE PREDICTION IN PANDAAN DISTRICT PASURUAN REGENCY

Abstract

Land-use change in Pandaan District was identified as the fourth-highest in East Java Province. This change is due to the population increase caused by the strategic location of the Pandaan Sub-district, which is passed by the Surabaya-Malang City connecting road, creating a rapid development of built-up land. The spread of built-up land development with low density becomes the initial identification of the sprawl phenomenon. Changes in land-use due to push factors caused inconsistencies in the development of existing land as stipulated in spatial planning documents. This study aims to determine land-use change and land-use prediction in Pandaan Sub-district to be used for future planning. Research methods incorporated spatial analysis of land-use change and the land-use planning process in ArcMap and SELVA IDRISI. The land use forecasts for modeling are based on the use of the Cellular Automata (CA) -Markov method and the ANN / MLP method. Land-use changes were identified through land-use comparisons in recent years. The land-use prediction was determined through the land-use change transition by including the motivating and inhibiting variables of land-use changes. The results of the study stated that the most significant land-use change occurred in rural/urban villages passed by arterial and collector road connecting Surabaya-Malang City. CAMarkov results showed that the results of land-use prediction have a linear development pattern in the spreading road networks and residential settlements. The prediction results show that settlement increase13,62% and industry increase 20,7%..