Land Use Modeling Scenarios using Spatial Dynamic Model in Badung Regency

Abstract

Management of land use is necessary to maintain the balance between human needs and environmental aspects. Known as the highest-income region in Indonesia, Badung Regency has substantial demand for land utilization for tourism activities. The conversion of productive agricultural land to tourism areas would threaten the sustainability of natural ecosystems in Badung. This study aims to predict the future land use in Badung Regency in 2033 through two development scenarios, Bussiness As Usual (BAU) and Rapid Economic Growth (REG). The simulation was carried out using spatial dynamic models of cellular automata. Several satellite imageries, municipal data, field surveys, and influencing factors of land transition have been utilized as input for the model. The result indicates that the residential area dominated the development in the BAU scenario with the direction of residential development spreading to the south, and new tourism development portrayed in the north close to the agricultural area. While in the REG scenario, tourism land use had significant growth that does not only approach agricultural land but also protected forest areas in the north. The model accuracy showed moderate agreement according to the Kappa index both in BAU and REG scenarios. The finding of this study could support the decision maker to create a better policy considering the potential impact of land use growth direction.