Land use land cover change intensity analysis for sustainable natural resources management: The case of northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

Abstract

Various studies conducted in the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia from 2001 to 2020 indicated two contrasting directions of change in land use land cover. One direction is the expansion of farmlands at the expense of the natural vegetation, and the other direction is expansion of plantation forest on farm and grazing lands. But, the net effect of land use land cover change is not as such clear. A clear understudying of such dynamics in land use land cover and the net effect of the change helps design effective land use planning policy, which enhances sustainable natural resources management. Accordingly, the study analyzed intensity of land use land cover change for three-time periods (1990–2000; 2000–2010 and 2010–2020). The findings of this study can be applicable to different parts of the globe where two contrasting directions of change in land use land cover exist. The study employed both qualitative and quantitative methods, which were specifically applied through carrying out step-by-step: satellite image acquisition, preprocessing, classification, accuracy assessment, and intensity analysis. Result of the analysis indicated that land use land cover change over the three intervals showed considerable variation where intensity was consistently increasing from the first (1990–2000) interval to the subsequent (2000–2010) interval, and it was fast (8.24%) during the third interval (2010–2020). The analysis also indicated considerably high transition from bare land to grazing land and bush land during the third interval, especially on areas where the community practiced controlled management of grazing lands (zero grazing) and protection of bush lands. From the total bare land cover in 2010, 21% converted to grazing land and 17% converted to bush land. LULC transition from bush land to cultivated land was rising due to encroachment of bush lands by farming. Transition from bush land to cultivated land increased by 4%, 16% and 50% in the period 1990–2000, 2000–2010, and 2010–2020, respectively. On the other hand, transition from cultivated land to forest land was considerably high during the third interval. From the total cultivated land cover in 2010, 25% converted to forest land, where the change is mainly associated to the introduction of woodlot plantation on individual farmland holdings. In general, the finding suggests that controlled management of grazing lands; comparing environmental and economic benefits of quarry/stone extraction sites; and plantation of economically viable and environmentally sound tree species are key policy issues which needs due attention in land use planning and management practices.