Land use in Ecuador: a statistical analysis at different aggregation levels

Abstract

Land use in Ecuador was investigated by means of statistical analysis with the purpose of deriving quantitative estimates of the relative areas of land use types on the basis of biogeophysical, socio-economic and infrastructural conditions. The smallest spatial units of investigation were 5 by 5 minute (9.25×9.25 km) cells of a homogenous geographical grid covering the whole country. Through aggregations of these cells, a total of six artificial aggregation levels was obtained with the aim of analysing spatial scale dependence of land use structure. For all aggregation levels independent multiple regression models were constructed for the estimation of areas within cells of the land use/cover types permanent crops, temporary crops, grassland and natural vegetation. The variables used in the models were selected from a total of 23 variables, that were considered proxies of biogeophysical, socio-economic and infrastructural conditions driving Ecuadorian land use. A spatial stratification was applied by dividing the country into three main eco-regions. The results showed that at higher aggregation levels, the independent variables explained more of the variance in areas of land use types. In most cases, biogeophysical, socio-economic as well as infrastructural variables were important for the explanation of land use, although the variables included in the models and their relative importance varied between land use types and eco-regions. Also within one eco-region, the model variables varied with aggregation level, indicating spatial scale effects. It is argued that these types of analyses can support the quantitative multi-scale understanding of land use, needed for the modelling of realistic future land use change scenarios that take into account local and regional conditions of actual land use.