Land use decisions under REDD+ incentives when warming temperatures affect crop productivity and forest biomass growth rates

Abstract

Climate change is expected to adversely impact crop productivity and forest stocks of the planet, which will pose food security challenges and complicate carbon mitigation goals. This paper asks in what ways warming temperatures may affect the ability of REDD+ programs to sequester carbon and support rural livelihoods. An example from the forest-rich central Himalayan region of India is used for modeling the implications of crop productivity decline on land use change decisions. Local communities derive their livelihoods through multiple avenues including forestry and farming. When faced with warming-led declining crop productivity, communities may find it attractive to enroll farmland into REDD+ programs. However, a reduced biomass growth rate due to increasing temperatures and declining precipitation would also lower the benefits from REDD+ participation, thereby delaying the timing of irreversible land use decisions. Results suggest that while higher carbon prices and declining crop incomes incentivize early farmland conversion into forests, a lower biomass growth rate discourages REDD+ enrolment. If communities are allowed fuelwood harvesting from forests, it could make land enrollment into REDD+ more attractive, leading to early conversion. However, the value of fuelwood to the communities plays a crucial role in determining the timing of REDD+ participation. When fuelwood is less scarce, warming will delay enrollment into REDD+ schemes. Whereas, when fuelwood is valuable to the community, early afforestation becomes an attractive option.