Land use conversion challenges and key impacting elements in North Sumatra

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Abstract The fall in harvested land area has not been addressed until now. Increased settlements, industry, and conversion to non-rice crops are projected to put more strain on rice output in the future. Extending agricultural land in the future is becoming increasingly difficult due to continual land conversion, which jeopardizes North Sumatra’s food security. This study aims to investigate the elements that impact the conversion of wet rice land in North Sumatra. The analytical approach employed is Autoregressive Distributed Lag. Variables that have a real effect on the transfer of function of paddy fields in North Sumatra are variables of land use change of paddy fields t-1 (AFL(-1)), land use change of paddy fields t-2 (AFL(-2)), population t-2 (JPD(-2)), GRDP of North Sumatra period t (PDB), GRDP of North Sumatra t-2 (PDB(-2)), number of industries period t (JID), number of industries t-1 (JID(-1)). Variables having a short-term equilibrium with the transfer of function of paddy fields in North Sumatra province include the transfer of function of paddy fields period t-1 (AFL(-1)), GRDP North Sumatra period t (PDB), and the number of industries in North Sumatra period t (JID). No variable has a long-term impact on the function transfer of paddy fields in North Sumatra.