Land use, climate change and ‘boom-bust’ sequences in agricultural landscapes: Interdisciplinary perspectives from the Peloponnese (Greece)

Erika Weiberg,Anton Bonnier,Martin Finné

doi:10.1016/j.jaa.2021.101319

Abstract

We show that long-term and comparative studies are imperative if we are to identify the interlinkage between land use and climate and understand how vulnerabilities build over time and ultimately decide the societal outcomes of climate change. Using a long-term perspective, we study changes in both the extent and intensity of land use in NE Peloponnese, Greece, across more than two thousand years, from the end of the Middle Bronze Age to Roman times (~1800 BCE–330 CE). When set against a backdrop of paleoclimate information from the Peloponnese, the correspondence between changes in land use extent and climate is significant. Sequences of booms and busts in ancient societies have previously been connected to cycles of agricultural intensification and the balance between population and food supply. Our results suggest that climate can amplify such cycles, but also – importantly – that societies create their own futures in the way that they are able to balance agricultural strategies relative to climate and climate change. Climate conditions may facilitate additional expansion during boom periods, supported by socio-political control functions, but also introduce significant impediments to previously successful strategies and ultimately lead to a crisis through an overexploitation of existing resources.

Highlights

Climate acts as a significant determinant behind the performance of agricultural regimes
The first peak period is noted for the Early Bronze Age, the second during the Late Bronze Age (Late Helladic/Late Helladic IIIA (LH IIIA) and Late Helladic IIIB (LH IIIB), ca. 1420–1200 BCE) and the third during the Classical to Early Hellenistic period (CL–EHL, ca. 500–150 BCE)
These peaks correlate with periods of general societal expansion indicated by increasing site numbers, expanding contact networks and overall socio-economic complexity (Bintliff, 2012): the period of the so called corridor houses (EH II), the Mycenaean palatial period (LH IIIA and LH IIIB), and the core period of the polis system in the north-eastern Peloponnese

Summary

Introduction

Climate acts as a significant determinant behind the performance of agricultural regimes. Climate conditions in a specific location motivate certain types of land use, but sub sequent changes to precipitation and temperature may render previously successful land use strategies unsustainable. This built-in sensitivity is especially apparent among agricultural societies, and in regions with low and/or variable rainfall. This sensitivity remains at least as relevant today as it was in the past, and it is increasingly stressed how knowledge of past land use can help formulate future land use polices (Ellis et al, 2013; Harrison et al, 2020) and to understand the variable persistence of societies relative to climate change (Armstrong et al, 2017; Kintigh et al, 2014). In Butzer’s model, the development of strategies involving agricultural intensification (i.e. greater investment of labour) enabled the full utilisation of Mediterranean polyculture, i.e. the riskreducing blend of grains, herd animals and orchards characteristic of the area still today

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Discussion

Conclusion