Land use changes and sea level rise may induce a “coastal squeeze” on the coasts of Veracruz, Mexico

Abstract

“Coastal squeeze” refers to the process in which coastal ecosystems are threatened by the combination of sea level rise (SLR) and the presence of a physical barrier, such as human infrastructure. This situation prevents the landward migration of ecosystems and species, as the coastline moves inland, and they are thus exposed to local extinction. Our objective was to explore coastal squeeze in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, through the study of urban expansion on the coast, an analysis of coastline geodynamics, and a projection of the potential effect of SLR on the distribution of two focal plant species which are endemic to the coastal dunes of Mexico. Urbanization of the coast, parallel to the shoreline, has been taking place increasingly rapidly, displacing ecosystems, both natural (mangroves, beaches and coastal dunes) and transformed (cultivated fields and pastures). Taking into consideration the geodynamic trends of the coastline and an analysis of its historical evolution, it can be seen that the coastal strip is eroding at rates that vary from slow to very rapid. Finally, the results of ecological niche modeling indicate that, under scenarios of SLR, the potential distribution of the two focal species would diminish: Chamaecrista chamaecristoides by 6–28%, and Palafoxia lindenii by 2–15%. These results indicate that “coastal squeeze” is likely in the study area, and that measures to limit or mitigate this process are required. Such measures could include urbanization programs which limit development to appropriate zones, the restoration and rehabilitation of deteriorated ecosystems and the conservation of those ecosystems which are still healthy.