Land use changes and natural disaster fatalities: Empirical analysis for India

Abstract

India’s land use pattern has witnessed significant changes over time. Various studies have pointed out that land use changes in India indicate a trend towards increasing urbanisation and deforestation (particularly for native forests). A priori, such changes in land use patterns may lead to a higher incidence of natural disasters. The study examines whether these land use changes have led to higher fatalities (and damages) due to floods and other natural disasters , controlling for various socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that land use changes, specifically deforestation, and urbanisation, are detrimental to environmental health, causing greater flood damages and natural disaster fatalities. Specifically, ‘forest cover’ is found to have a negative impact on ‘flood damages’, whereas ‘urbanisation’ has a positive impact, as per a priori expectations. Similarly, forest cover is found to be inversely related to total ‘natural disaster fatalities’ (which includes deaths due to floods, cyclones, landslides, heat waves, cold waves, and lightning), whereas ‘urbanisation’ is found to have a positive impact on disaster fatalities, according to a priori expectations. Our results confirm that land use changes in the direction of deforestation and urbanisation have increased fatalities and damages due to natural disasters. Another important finding of our study is that financial development has a mitigating impact on flood fatalities as well as overall natural disaster fatalities.