Land use change simulation based on land price spatial model in Tembelang, Indonesia

Abstract

The construction of the toll gate interchange in Tembelang district, Jombang, has resulted in the increased land price in the area. This is because the area is getting more accessible, that led to new developments and land use changes. Areas with good infrastructure tend to have high land prices because it is more desirable, therefore land prices can be used as an approach in analysing land use change. Spatial modelling is done with Spatial Regression and produces land price maps classified as 0 - 200000 (low), 200000.0001 - 410000 (medium), and 410000.0001 - 1059240.75 (high) with an area of 1210.16 Ha, 1158.20 Ha, 1080.02 Ha. The price of the land is in units of Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) per square meter. From land pricing class, arranged potential for land use change by applying Query Builder. Land use change from non-built land to built-up land was simulated in high and medium land pricing class and predicted conversion for high land price 725.42 Ha and 901.04 for the medium land price. This research can be used as a recommendation to spatial arrangement and to anticipate land conversion that is not in accordance with its allocation in planning documents.