Land use change modeling through an integrated Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain analysis (case study: Arasbaran region, Iran)

Abstract

Temporal land use/land cover (LULC) change information provides a variety of applications for informed management of land resources. The aim of this study was to detect and predict LULC changes in the Arasbaran region using an integrated Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain analysis. At the first step, multi-temporal Landsat images (1990, 2002 and 2014) were processed using ancillary data and were classified into seven LULC categories of high density forest, low-density forest, agriculture, grassland, barren land, water and urban area. Next, LULC changes were detected for three time profiles, 1990–2002, 2002–2014 and 1990–2014. A 2014 LULC map of the study area was further simulated (for model performance evaluation) applying 1990 and 2002 map layers. In addition, a collection of spatial variables was also used for modeling LULC change processes as driving forces. The actual and simulated 2014 LULC change maps were cross-tabulated and compared to ensure model simulation success and the results indicated an overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of 97.79% and 0.992, respectively. Having the model properly validated, LULC change was predicted up to the year 2025. The results demonstrated that 992 and 1592 ha of high and low-density forests were degraded during 1990–2014, respectively, while 422 ha were added to the extent of residential areas with a growth rate of 17.58 ha per year. The developed model predicted a considerable degradation trend for the forest categories through 2025, accounting for 489 and 531 ha of loss for high and low-density forests, respectively. By way of contrast, residential area and farmland categories will increase up to 211 and 427 ha, respectively. The integrated prediction model and customary area data can be used for practical management efforts by simulating vegetation dynamics and future LULC change trajectories.