Land use carbon emissions estimation and carbon emissions control strategy effect scenario simulation in Zhejiang province

Abstract

Carbon emission control is an important aspect of regional sustainable development. However, there are few studies on predicting the impact of different socio-economic development strategies on carbon emissions under the premise of established government policy objectives, and then evaluating the degree of achievement of policy objectives. In order to research the effect of social and economic development strategies on carbon emissions, remote sensing land use data of Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2020 were utilized in this paper to quantify carbon emissions, combined with Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition method, and multi-scenario carbon emissions simulation and prediction were carried out under the STIRPAT model framework. The results demonstrate that land use carbon emissions increased by four times in the last 20 years, and increased rapidly between 2000 and 2010, and became stable in recent years. Economic growth is the primary motivator; According to the existing economic development model, carbon emissions will peak and turn around in 2030; If appropriate economic transformation measures are taken to increase the proportion of low-carbon economic components, it is possible to achieve the development model of scenario 2 and scenario 3, and carbon emissions will reach the peak 2–5 years earlier. In general, this study offers a significant conclusion for the investigation of the connection between social and economic growth strategies and carbon emissions, and it can serve as a guide for the formation of government policy.