Land use and land cover changes and carbon stock valuation in the São Francisco river basin, Brazil

Abstract

The São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) is one of the largest basins in Brazil and hosts several economic activities. However, it is under socioeconomic and environmental vulnerabilities. The SFRB includes part of the biomes Caatinga, Atlantic Forest, and Cerrado in Brazil, which are undergoing strong economic pressures. Changes in land use land cover (LULC) affect carbon stocks at different intensities; thus, the valuation of carbon stocks can assist in decision-making, mainly in the context of ecosystem services in areas of interest. In this study, impacts of LULC on carbon stocks in the SFRB in 1997, 2007, and 2017 were assessed. The total Carbon stocks by 2017 were estimated and evaluated for economic value to support the estimation of ecosystem services in our study area. The LULC dynamics were evaluated using data provided by the MapBiomas project. The carbon stocks, modeled as a function of LULC, were estimated using the InVEST program. Our study results showed a total estimated loss of 7,496,128 hectares in different types of native vegetation and 133,187,028 Mg in carbon stocks in the SFRB between 1997 and 2017. The Carbon loss is equivalent to US$ 3.2 billion of ecosystem services related to carbon sequestration and stocks in the study period. This information may support decision-makers to define public policies to improve environmental monitoring, recovering, and conservation in this important river basin in Brazil. This study area should be subject to new public policies focusing on the recovery and conservation of environmental quality and climate change mitigation, by considering the socioeconomic and environmental importance of that basin in the national context.