Land use and land cover change and its implications in Kagera river basin, East Africa

Abstract

The Kagera basin has experienced major land use/cover changes in tropical forests, woodlands, and savannas due to the incessant conversion of land to agricultural and settlement use. While the land use/cover change has accelerated land degradation, biodiversity loss, and climate change in the region, few studies exist on the drivers and implications of land use/cover dynamics in the basin. The study quantified the historical land use/cover changes beginning from 1984 to 2011 and predicted future changes using multi-level data-sets. We also examined population growth and government policies as they relate to land cover/use change. Data-sets from disparate sources consisting of multi-temporal satellite images, digital elevation model, population, and relevant ancillary data were used in the study. A combination of post-classification change detection method, intensity analysis, and Markov chain models were used to analyze and evaluate historical land use/cover changes and predict future change scenarios. We observed a major expansion of agriculture land at the loss of woodland savanna. Overall, change is more pronounced and fast during the period 1984–1994 and relatively slow during 1994–2011. Category and transition intensities were more pronounced in 1984–1994 than 1994–2011. These changes suggest policy intervention from government and individual response during the period 1994–2011. In addition, the study identified population growth, settlement expansion, and local policies as key drivers of land use/cover change. Future scenarios indicate: (1) increase in agriculture land use, (2) loss in woodland savanna and forest cover, and (3) significant wetland loss to agriculture.