Land Use and Agriculture: Pitfalls and Precautions on the Road to Net Zero

Dave S. Reay

doi:10.3389/fclim.2020.00004

Abstract

Land use is a crucial sector in delivering enhanced carbon sequestration globally. At the same time food production is a major source of global greenhouse gas emissions. As pressure mounts for all nations to increase their levels of ambition under the Paris Climate Agreement, so the pressure to radically reduce emissions from the agriculture sector and enhance carbon sequestration in the land use sector also ramps up. This trend is most clearly evident in the drive for ‘net zero’ where unavoidable emissions, such as those from food production, are balanced by more sequestration via land use change. Here we examine some of the major risks, applicable safeguards, and potential pathways for agriculture and land use in realising net zero. Using the UK as an example we highlight the importance of governance, finance, skills, research & technology, and society in this transition. We conclude that successful land use policy for net zero will require extremely demanding levels of integration and spatial resolution, but that the research base to support this is fast-developing. We also invoke the Cancun safeguards as a basis on which a more sustainable and just transition to net zero might be based. Finally, we warn of unintended distortions to policy and markets if the drive for net zero is too blinkered.

Highlights

Our global food system is responsible for around one-quarter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, with agricultural production the dominant source of these emissions (Vermeulen et al, 2012)
Achieving this goal will require net global CO2 emissions to reduce to zero by the middle of the century (Rogelj et al, 2018). Some developed nations, such as the UK, have committed to a target of “net zero” for all greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050—whereby unavoidable emissions are balanced by increased domestic sequestration
We focus on the UK as a developed nation with a legallybinding target of net zero GHG emissions by 2050 and where development of new farming policy to support “public goods” like climate change mitigation is already a focus due to exit from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (Bateman and Balmford, 2018)

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Our global food system is responsible for around one-quarter of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, with agricultural production the dominant source of these emissions (Vermeulen et al, 2012). The Paris Climate Agreement aims to limit global average temperature increase to well below 2◦C above the pre-industrial baseline and pursue efforts to keep warming within 1.5◦C Achieving this goal will require net global CO2 emissions to reduce to zero by the middle of the century (Rogelj et al, 2018). Some developed nations, such as the UK, have committed to a target of “net zero” for all greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 2050—whereby unavoidable emissions are balanced by increased domestic sequestration. The transition to net zero is set to rely heavily on changes in domestic land use and agriculture, potentially delivering greenhouse gas emissions savings of over 40 Mt CO2e per year by 2050 (compared to today) and including forestry (∼14 Mt), low carbon farming practices (∼10 MT), dietary change and food waste (∼7 Mt), agroforestry (∼6 Mt), peatlands (∼5 Mt) and energy crops (∼2 Mt) (CCC, 2020)

LAND USE AND NET ZERO IN THE UK

NET ZERO PITFALLS

REALIZING NET ZERO

Research and Development

Findings

CONCLUSIONS