Land transport greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios for Mauritius based on modelling transport demand

Abstract

A model has been applied to quantify land transport demand in Mauritius from the perspectives of both passenger transport and freight transport. The first objective of the paper is to present the model, including the 2-layer calibration that has been carried out for assuring energy balance using official statistics. The second objective of the paper is to demonstrate the use of the model to develop greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios based on policies including: (i) improved fuel efficiency of vehicles; (ii) improved vehicle inspections; (iii) the scaling up of low-carbon technologies including hybrid and electric vehicles, as well as the use of bioethanol produced in Mauritius; and (iv) the proposed light-rail system in Mauritius. The results show that the ‘business-as-usual’ land transport emissions are expected to reach ~1.68 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2050. The combination of all scenarios could result in ~0.31 MtCO2e reductions by 2050, with over 57% of all reductions are expected to accrue from (iii). Since energy used in transport makes up for more than 56% of the primary energy requirement of Mauritius, the macroeconomic effects of decarbonizing land transport is significant from an energy security standpoint. The modelling approach can be used to inform the formulation of a low-carbon land transport strategy for Mauritius, as well as for increasing the mitigation ambition of its Nationally Determined Contribution. Further, it is argued that the approach would be useful in the context of other small islands developing states that face land availability constraints like Mauritius.