Land suitability projections for traditional sub-alpine cropping in the Australian Alps and Chilean Dry Andes. A combined biophysical and irrigation potential perspective

Abstract

A GIS-based multi-criteria approach is applied in the Upper Murray River basin (Australian Alps) and Rapel River basin (Chilean Dry Andes) to project both biophysical and irrigation potential land suitability. Agricultural adaptation guidelines are then suggested in the context of agricultural expansion, land use change and water management. The findings show, first, the orographic hydro-climate patterns are the primary control over land suitability, its uncertainty and sensitivity. Second, the expected land suitability reduction during the 21st century will be driven primarily by catchment-level irrigation potential deficits even over the declining farm-level biophysical conditions. Third, a distinctive functionality for flatter and steeper agricultural systems is likely to be identifiable from land suitability trajectories. Further applications should be focused on regional-type studies and improvements regarding the effectiveness of expert judgement, validation, non-linear/daily dynamics and the influence of extreme climatology on land suitability.