Abstract
AbstractBioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km2 is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km2 by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.
Highlights
With the Paris Agreement, the international community committed to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C and endeavour to limit it to 1.5°C (UNFCCC, 2015)
Uncertainties on the sustainable resource potential for dedicated energy crops stem from several factors including: the availability of land considering changing food requirements and agricultural practices; the suitability of that land for crop cultivation in a changing climate; the performance of crops which have not yet been cultivated at large scale; the yields that may be expected from abandoned or degraded land; costs associated with improving degraded land; emissions associated with land-use change and transport to processing facilities (Anderson & Peters, 2016; Fajardy, Köberle, Mac Dowell, & Fantuzzi, 2019; Searle & Malins, 2015)
We address the following questions: (a) What is the current spatial distribution of areas suitable for growing energy crops? (b) How do the suitable areas overlap with other land-uses and where are the hotspots for potential competition between energy crops, food and forestry? (c) When land required for food, urban and protected areas is excluded, how is climate change projected to impact the areas suitable for growing energy crops in the context of socio-economic development?
Summary
With the Paris Agreement, the international community committed to keep the global temperature rise well below 2°C and endeavour to limit it to 1.5°C (UNFCCC, 2015). Uncertainties on the sustainable resource potential for dedicated energy crops stem from several factors including: the availability of land considering changing food requirements and agricultural practices; the suitability of that land for crop cultivation in a changing climate; the performance of crops which have not yet been cultivated at large scale; the yields that may be expected from abandoned or degraded land; costs associated with improving degraded land; emissions associated with land-use change and transport to processing facilities (Anderson & Peters, 2016; Fajardy, Köberle, Mac Dowell, & Fantuzzi, 2019; Searle & Malins, 2015) Improved understanding of these issues at the global and regional level is vital, as they could have important implications for the potential role of bioenergy and trade of biomass resources
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