Land subsidence susceptibility mapping in urban settlements using time-series PS-InSAR and random forest model

Abstract

Land subsidence in urban settlements is globally becoming prevalent and severe due to sea level rise and accelerated construction. However, few studies have analyzed the susceptibility of land subsidence in urban settlements and the subsidence rate thresholds that have a great impact on the reliability of the land subsidence susceptibility map (LSSM). This work aims to provide a novel LSSM framework for decision makers to conduct risk control in regional urban settlements. Herein, the COSMO-SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from July 2016 to June 2021 was acquired for remote sensing interpretation in Wuhan, China. Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) technology, combined with geostatistical analysis, was employed to map regional land subsidence rates. A total of 12 impact factors, identified through Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and multicollinearity tests, were selected as input features for the machine learning model. The performance of the model was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, and the segmentation of PS points for land subsidence rate was discussed. Furthermore, the correspondence between the measured ground-level observations and the predicted LSSM was compared. The results demonstrate that the random forest (RF) model outperforms other models in the test set, achieving an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.940. The optimal threshold of −10 mm/year is proposed for segmenting PS points, which exhibits the strongest reliability in the distribution characteristics of the susceptibility index (SI). Combined with a high-performance hybrid model, this work is expected to provide a promising reference for land subsidence susceptibility prediction in similar urban settlements worldwide.