Land-subsidence susceptibility mapping: assessment of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system–genetic algorithm hybrid model

Abstract

Land-subsidence (LS) is a common geo-hazard in many regions of the world. The overexploitation of subsurface and ground water, followed by collapse of underground cavities, is one of the mechanisms that cause LS. Optimal prediction of LS is difficult due to limitations in monitoring, surveying and information about the mechanism and process of LS. Therefore, LS susceptibility mapping (LSSM) is crucial to prevent and reduce the economic damage of natural and manmade catastrophes. This study in the Isfahan Province, Iran, aimed to map LS susceptibility using a hybrid model of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system–genetic algorithm (ANFIS–GA) and three stand-alone machine-learning (ML) models: support vector machine, maximum entropy and ANFIS. In total, 155 LS historical points were collected, and 12 LS conditioning factors (LSCFs) were compiled for each site. These factors were elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness index, plan curvature, distance to stream, drainage density, groundwater withdrawal, lithology, distance to fault, normalized difference vegetation index and land use and land cover. These data were input into the models in five training-to-validation sample ratios, designated D1 (90:10), D2 (80:20), D3 (70:30), D4 (60:40) and D5 (50:50). The importance of these variables to the occurrence of LS was calculated using a random forest algorithm. Algorithm performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve analysis and the results show ANFIS–GA to be the optimal model, with average training and validation AUC values of 0.9644 and 0.9416, respectively. The results demonstrate that LSSMs can be effectively prepared to support decision makers in land use planning and allocation through the development of suitable management strategies.