Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia

Felix K S Lim,Jolian Mchardy,L Roman Carrasco,David P Edwards

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2bda

Abstract

Increasing global demand for oil palm drives its expansion across the tropics, at the expense of forests and biodiversity. Little is known of the dynamics that shape the spread of oil palm, limiting our potential to predict areas vulnerable to future crop expansion and its resulting biodiversity impacts. Critically, studies have not related oil palm expansion to the role of agricultural rent and profitability in explaining how and where oil palm is expected to expand. Using a novel land rent modelling framework parameterised to oil palm expansion across Indonesia between 2000 and 2015, we identify drivers of crop expansion and evaluate whether Indonesia's Forest Moratorium might reduce the rate of future oil palm expansion. With an overall accuracy of 85.84%, the model shows oil palm expansion is driven by price changes, spatial distribution of production costs, and a spatial contagion effect. Projecting beyond 2015, we show that areas under high risk of oil palm expansion are mostly not protected by the current Forest Moratorium. Our study emphasises the importance of economic forces and infrastructure on oil palm expansion. These results could be used for more effective conservation decisions to manage one of the biggest drivers of tropical biodiversity loss.

Highlights

As the most widely traded vegetable oil and biofuel, oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) is an important driver of land-use change across the tropics [1]
net present value (NPV) was calculated based on a typical 25-year life cycle (T = 25) of an oil palm plantation, accounting for time taken for crops to mature: oil palm crops typically start producing fruits after the third year, we only considered returns from the harvest of fruits from the fourth to twenty-fifth years
Given our model only focuses on the spread of oil palm plantations, we do not examine future displacement of other crops by oil palm, and excluded other plantations from projections of oil palm expansion beyond 2015

Summary

Introduction

As the most widely traded vegetable oil and biofuel, oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) is an important driver of land-use change across the tropics [1]. It is essential that we first understand the drivers that explain oil palm expansion across time and space. Our understanding of oil palm expansion has largely been based on environmental crop suitability and accessibility [7]–[10]. We have an extensive understanding of spatial variation in oil palm suitability [1], [11], [12], and potential palm oil yields pan-tropically [13]. Land-use change for expansion of commercial crops is fundamentally economic [17] and driven by profitability, and it is important we have a better understanding of this relationship across both space and time. Knowing which areas are susceptible to land-use change and crop expansion could inform conservation policies. Efforts managing oil palm expansion typically involve protecting vulnerable areas with high conservation value, via state intervention (e.g., establishing protected areas), or corporate action under certification schemes (e.g., the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion