Land Cover Changes Based on Cellular Automata for Land Surface Temperature in Semarang Regency

Abstract

Land cover changes based on cellular automata for surface temperature in Semarang Regency has increased significantly due to the continuous rise in its population. Therefore, this study aims to identify, analyze and predict multitemporal land cover changes and surface temperature distribution in 2028. Data on the land cover map were obtained from Landsat 7 and 8 based on supervised classification, while Land Surface Temperature (LST) was calculated from its thermal bands. The collected data were analyzed for accuracy through observation, while Cellular Automata - Markov Chain was used to predict the associated changes in 2028. The result showed that there are 4 land cover maps with 5-year intervals from 2003 to 2018 at an accuracy of more than 85%. Furthermore, the existing land covers were dominated by forest with decreasing trend, while the built-up area continuously increased. The existing Land surface temperature range from 20.6°C to 36.6°C, at an average of 28.2°C and a yearly increase of 0.07°C. The temperature changes are positively correlated with the occurrence of land conversion. Land cover predictions for 2028 show similar forest dominance, with a 23,4% built-up area at a surface temperature of 28.9°C.
 Keywords: Land cover change; Cellular Automata-Markov Chain; Land Surface Temperature
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