Land Change Modelling to Inform Strategic Decisions on Forest Cover and CO2 Emissions in Eastern Madagascar

Jennifer Hewson,Timothy Max Wright,Julie Hanta Razafimanahaka,Celia A Harvey,Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery,Arnout Van Soesbergen,Tantely Razafimbelo,Ntsoa Ranaivoson,Rina Mandimbiniaina,Andry Andriamananjara,Mieja Razafindrakoto,Herintsitohaina Razakamanarivo,Karyn Tabor,Mark Mulligan,Andrisoa Rianahary,Julia Pg Jones

doi:10.1017/s0376892918000358

Abstract

SummaryDecision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.

Highlights

Policy-makers are tasked with developing policies that meet national and international sustainable development and climate change mitigation commitments
Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation
We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar

Summary

Introduction

Policy-makers are tasked with developing policies that meet national and international sustainable development and climate change mitigation commitments. Rapid improvement in the availability of satellite-derived deforestation data (Goetz et al 2015), combined with the increasing use of geographic information systems (GIS) and land change modelling tools (e.g., Fuller et al 2011, Reddy et al 2017), allow exploration of future policy scenarios on forest cover, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ecosystem services (Swetnam et al 2001; Lippe et al 2017). Projecting the impacts of alternative future land-use scenarios represents a powerful tool for policymakers and other stakeholders to understand their ecological and socioeconomic consequences and identify potential synergies and trade-offs across forest conservation, climate change mitigation and development goals (De Rosa et al 2016). Lippe et al (2017) explored the impacts of stakeholder-based land-use scenarios (agricultural intensification and reforestation) on aboveground carbon stocks in Thailand to inform A growing number of studies have shown the utility of land change modelling and participatory scenario development to inform forest cover change and GHG emissions. Lippe et al (2017) explored the impacts of stakeholder-based land-use scenarios (agricultural intensification and reforestation) on aboveground carbon stocks in Thailand to inform

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