Land and Sea: The Evolving Great-power Contest in Asia

Abstract

The contest for strategic dominance in Asia between the United States and China is playing out differently inland and at sea. Following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, China’s influence across swathes of inland Asia is ascendant, due also to China’s strengthening partnerships with Iran, Pakistan and Russia. However, a bigger set of challenges confronts China’s growing maritime ambitions, since the US has corralled its own partners through arrangements such as AUKUS and the Quad to balance China’s growing naval ambitions. While nothing can predetermine the future course of US–China rivalry in Asia, its emerging contours indicate an inner Asia relatively free of Western influence and an increasingly contested maritime Asia.