Land allocation model using cellular automata to understand housing demand and supply

Abstract

India is witnessing unprecedented urbanization that has led to the growth of real estate sector, particularly housing. However, since independence providing affordable housing has been a challenge. The gap of demand and supply has been ever increasing and has reached threshold levels due to congested spaces in major cities of India. This work articulates the changing patterns of spatial development in Mumbai. Mumbai has seen two types of growth in the same neighborhood. Brownfield development is highly regarded as a viable option for the physical and natural constrained city of Mumbai. This work describes the land use simulation model to understand the re-development scenario within a ward of the city of Mumbai and allocates housing demand on spatial city grid to match with maximum utility from demand-side and maximum profitability on the supply side, thus generating a map of re-developed cells at every time step. Cellular automata (CA) based platform is employed to undertake Spatio-temporal analysis. Land use maps and land use simulation through CA points out the evolving pattern of outgrowth in the city. The proposed housing redevelopment model predicts future scenarios of housing redevelopment from supply-side and spatial allocation through income class-wise location preference. The model tests the newly proposed inclusionary housing policy along with the slum rehabilitation and relocation scheme of Mumbai’s development plan 2034.