Abstract
Abstract Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) convection and lightning probability and “potential” guidance forecasts for the conterminous United States, developed by the Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL), have been produced operationally and made available to aviation and other users through the National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) since April 2014. In response to user requests for improved skill and resolution of these forecasts, MDL has recently made extensive upgrades, and a switch to the new LAMP guidance was made in January 2018. Upgrades include improved spatial and temporal resolution of the predictands, which were enabled by first time LAMP use of finescale radar reflectivity products from the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system, total lightning observations from a ground-based lightning sensing system, and finescale model output from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. This article describes how these new data inputs are applied in the LAMP model to obtain improved skill and sharpness of the convection and total lightning probability forecasts. Strengths and limitations in LAMP performance are shown through verification statistics and example verification maps for a selected intense convective storm case.
Highlights
During 2012–17, flight delays and cancellations in the United States cost airlines and passengers over $20 billion (U.S dollars) annually (FAA 2018)
Lightning results in heavy property damage, as the Insurance Information Institute (Insurance Information Institute 2019) reports that insurance payouts from lightning losses to residential properties averaged almost $900 million annually during 2007–16, Denotes content that is immediately available upon publication as open access
Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) recently upgraded this guidance through incorporation of advanced, finescale radar and lightning observational data together with High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model output, which is the subject of article
Summary
During 2012–17, flight delays and cancellations in the United States cost airlines and passengers over $20 billion (U.S dollars) annually (FAA 2018). While feedback from users of LAMP convection and CG lightning forecast guidance has been mostly favorable, some aviation users indicated a need for improved skill, sharpness, and resolution of the probabilities To address this need, MDL recently upgraded this guidance through incorporation of advanced, finescale radar and lightning observational data together with HRRR model output, which is the subject of article. These advances have been enabled largely by the advent of four-dimensional radar reflectivity mapping of individual thunderstorm cells by WSR-88D radars (Crum and Alberty 1993; Crum et al 1993) and lightning mapping by ground- and space-based lightning locating systems (LLSs; Nag et al 2015) Both laboratory experiments (e.g., Takahashi 1978) and diagnostic studies of the internal structure of thunderstorms using radar and lightning data (e.g., Carey and Rutledge 2000; Lang and Rutledge 2002) indicate cloud electrification results from hydrometeor (graupel, hail, and supercooled water droplets) collisions in the mixed-phase region of intense convective cloud updrafts. Since the upgraded LAMP convection and lightning model incorporates cutting-edge radar and lightning data as well as output from the ‘‘convection-allowing’’ HRRR model, the degree to which these scientific advances are incorporated in the present LAMP model (or will be incorporated in a future LAMP upgrade) is noted at various points in the body of this article
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
