Lake Chivero (Zimbabwe) and its climatic environment

Abstract

AbstractThe mean temperatures and mean maximum temperatures in Lake Chivero indicate a warming trend, which is not evident in mean minimum temperatures. The mean annual precipitation also exhibits a declining trend, as does the Manyame River flow trend. The relation between run‐off, river flow and precipitation indicate a discontinuous trend at a piecewise regression breakpoint of 998 mm precipitation. Above the breakpoint, the river flow is related exponentially with precipitation, while the run‐off relationship is linear, although with a low R2 value. Below the breakpoint, both the run‐off and river flow exhibit a low variance accountability. Considered within the context of the IPCC findings of a subcontinent warming faster than the rest of the southern hemisphere, along with declining precipitation, these data suggest an uncertain water supply security for the City of Harare and its satellite settlements. The detectable warming of the lake, taken together with observations in Lake Kariba, also suggests an ecological shift that could be dominated by a shift to a permanent cyanobacteria‐dominated ecosystem, which is currently dominated by Microcystis and Anabaena species.