Lactate as an early prognostic indicator in yellow phosphorus rodenticide-induced acute hepatic failure: a retrospective observational study in a tertiary care hospital

Abstract

Introduction Acute hepatic failure due to yellow phosphorus rodenticide ingestion is often lethal. This study aimed to analyze demographic characteristics and prognostic indicators, focusing on hyperlactataemia as a potential early indicator of mortality in patients poisoned with yellow phosphorus rodenticide. Materials and methods This was a retrospective study of 96 patients poisoned with a yellow phosphorus-containing rodenticide (Ratol paste, which contains 3% yellow phosphorus). We examined demographic details, clinical symptoms, and biochemical markers to identify prognostic indicators. Results Demographics were similar among survivors and non-survivors. Mortality (36.5%) correlated with a higher ingested dose and treatment delays, with a mean (±SD) of 5.26 ± 2.2 survival days among those who died. Symptoms, including gastrointestinal and neurological features, typically appeared 48 h after ingestion. Non-survivors developed increased aminotransferase activities (74.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (65.7%), and hyperbilirubinaemia (65.7%) during hospitalization, significantly more commonly compared to survivors (P < 0.0001). Hyperlactataemia (lactate concentration >2 mmol/L) was present in 97.1% of non-survivors, with increased serial lactate concentrations observed in 88.6%. The median (interquartile range) admission lactate concentration among non-survivors was 4.6 mmol/L (3.36–7.53 mmol/L), and their peak median (interquartile range) lactate concentration was 6.1 mmol/L (8.74–10.6 mmol/L). In non-survivors, an increased lactate concentration preceded increased aminotransferase activities and prolonged prothrombin time. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis confirmed that a 24 h lactate concentration ≥2.67 mmol/L predicted death with 94.3% sensitivity and 91.8% specificity. Discussion The majority of patients who ingest yellow phosphorus remain asymptomatic initially and typically present to hospital following the onset of gastrointestinal symptoms, usually a day later. As progression to death occurs within a week of yellow phosphorus ingestion in most cases, determining prognosis as early as possible enables swift referral to a liver transplant centre. Based on our study, a 24 h lactate concentration ≥2.67 mmol/L appears to be an early prognostic indicator of death. In another study, a lactate concentration >5.8 mmol/L was found to be a poor prognostic indicator. Conclusions Hyperlactataemia on admission and increased serial lactate concentrations appear to be early poor prognostic signs in patients with yellow phosphorus-induced liver failure.