Lack of medical resources and public health vulnerability in Mongolia's winter disasters.

Abstract

Many countries face the need to address medical resource shortages following various disasters. The dzud is a winter disaster that occurs in Mongolia following drought in dryland areas, and it leads to high livestock mortality. Affected provinces suffer increased mortality rates for children aged under 5 years. Using various factors, including medical resources, the present study aimed to evaluate the health risks for children during the dzud. Data from all of Mongolia's 21 provinces and the capital of Ulaanbaatar were analyzed. The change in child mortality (CCM) was defined as the difference in the under-five mortality rate from 2009 to 2010. To determine the correlations, the CCM was compared with the urbanization rate (proportion of urban population), number of physicians and nurses (per 1000 residents), average temperature, total precipitation (October 2009 to February 2010), and declining rate in livestock numbers for 2009-10 (percentage livestock loss) in each province. The correlation coefficients between the CCM and each factor were as follows: number of physicians (r=−0.506, p=0.016), urbanization rate (r=−0.467, p=0.029), and percentage livestock loss (r=0.469, p=0.028). In the multiple regression analysis, the number of physicians was significantly negatively related to the CCM (standardizing coefficient −0.492, p=0.020). These results suggest that increased medical resources and infrastructure development have positive effects on child health - even in the setting where the dzud causes considerable damage to livestock.