Abstract
Abstract This study aims at ferreting out a sparse subset, among the many democracy indicators, that best predicts lack-of-corruption (LoC). Two factors enable the authors to improve on previous research. First, the Varieties of Democracy (VD) data have become available over an extended time span, involving an unprecedented number of separate indicators. Second, the authors apply previously neglected methods, such as Gaussian standardization and measures to avoid overfitting. They also reduce random error on the LoC side by using the mean of two separate indices, VD and Transparency International, that correlate with R2 = 0.81. This results in an optimal set of 11 democracy indicators that predict the mean LoC with R2 = 0.87, close to what one could ideally expect to achieve. Among the five main categories VD distinguishes, the indicators that predict lack-of-corruption are mainly part of Liberal and Egalitarian Democracy, with lesser incidence of Electoral Democracy. This leaves out Participatory, and Deliberative Democracy.
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