Labour-Market Dynamics and Unemployment: New Scenarios in the Italian Economy

Abstract

The availability of new longitudinal data on the Italian labour market for the time period 2004–2009 allows us to depict new scenarios for both labour mobility and unemployment, the latter having increased in relevance since the beginning of the current economic downturn. To achieve an exhaustive picture of the Italian labour market we propose investigation in two directions: we provide both a descriptive analysis and an econometric investigation by estimating multinomial logit models. We find that as far as our analyses go, possessing some particular characteristics reduces the negative impact of the economic downturn. More precisely, individuals with work experience and high educational qualifications have a higher probability of finding a job. On the other hand, older workers with temporary contracts (and also with permanent contracts) are more likely to become unemployed.