Abstract
The aim of this paper is to determine whether, and to what extent, the migrations from the EU-8+2 to the EU-15 were motivated by differences in earnings and productivity and to what extent by differences in welfare state generosity during the period of the transitional arrangements. On these grounds, a distinction emerges between “favourable” and “unfavourable” migrations on one hand and immigration net winners and losers on the other hand. The obtained results represent an empirical ground for the discussion on the thesis according to which more generous welfare state regimes will be more susceptible to the influx of unfavourable immigrants during the upcoming period of the free movement of labour, while the less generous welfare state regimes will be a magnet for the favourable immigration influx within the EU-27.
Highlights
The EU-15 welfare states are faced with economic and demographic challenges that call into question the sustainability of current levels of social spending and the very concept of social welfare
The obtained results represent an empirical ground for the discussion on the thesis according to which more generous welfare state regimes will be more susceptible to the influx of unfavourable immigrants during the upcoming period of the free movement of labour, while the less generous welfare state regimes will be a magnet for the favourable immigration influx within the EU-27
Differences in earnings/social spending are expressed through the rate of depreciation relative to the EU-15 average
Summary
The EU-15 welfare states are faced with economic and demographic challenges that call into question the sustainability of current levels of social spending and the very concept of social welfare. The application of the principle of freedom of movement opens labour market and social protection systems for workers from new member states. The removing of borders for workers from new member states is an economic issue and has strong political, cultural, and sociological dimensions that often blur the individual and collective rationality of preferences towards the types of immigration policies. Different economic and political reasons have resulted in adopting different approaches, both in terms of speed and legislation, when regulating migration inflows from the new member states. K. Josifidis et al Labour migration flows: EU8+2 vs EU-15
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