Labour Markets of the Future: The Challenge to Education Policy Makers

Abstract

In addressing the complex issues of the relationship between new technologies and human resources, different methodological approaches can be applied. A rich source of studies exists at the micro level, i.e. enterprises and/or sectors which focus, in particular, on the qualitative changes taking place. Fewer studies exist on the macro level for this subject, given its complexity and lack of adequate data. This article addresses the issues from both perspectives, but findings from the micro perspective predominate. It is structured around developments and changes on the demand and supply side and their interaction. The final section identifies some principal policy issues for governments as they relate both to demand and supply measures, as well as the need to strengthen the database for a better understanding of the issues involved. It draws heavily on recent and ongoing work on the subject carried out within the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI) of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The importance of the 'human capital' component of national wealth has been recognised and analysed by many economists during the post-war period. During the 1980s there was also growing government interest in human resources development. Many national governments have started to address the issue of whether existing systems of education and training are adequately equipped to meet increasing international competition and the particular challenges posed by new technologies. To this has been added the fear in many quarters that new technologies might increase unemployment. Such fears have been sustained by an apparent paradox when looking at the economy in many OECD countries in more general terms, namely that many countries have seen economic growth over a long period along with very high unemployment. One school of thought has tried to explain this paradox in terms of an emerging 'jobless growth society' where the economy is growing without being able to create full employment as traditionally defined. Another approach to explaining the paradox has focused on seeing it as a temporary phenomenon that increased deregulation and free market forces would be able to solve over time.