Labour Market Change and the Long-term Sustainability of New Zealand Superannuation

Abstract

Research on the long-term sustainability of New Zealand Superannuation has identified three main policy options; raising the age of eligibility, lowering pension rates relative to the average age, and the targeting of the entitlement. Our paper examines the potential impact of labour market changes on superannuation, under a range of long-term scenarios. The balance between market and non-market work and leisure is certain to be significantly affected by the demands of population ageing. Female participation rates seem likely to rise as do those of older persons. The long-term historical decline in male participation seems unlikely to continue over the next fifty years. Overall, anticipation in paid work be persons aged 25-70 will tend to increase. However, our scenarios suggest that no prospective pattern of labour market change is likely, of itself, to solve New Zealand's emerging superannuation problem. All three policy options identified in previous research need to be kept under review as possible responses to emergent fiscal pressures.