Labor Market Volatility, Gender, and Trade Preferences

Ryan Brutger,Alexandra Guisinger

doi:10.1017/xps.2021.9

Abstract

AbstractWhat explains divides in the public’s support for trade protection? Traditional economic arguments primarily focus on individuals’ expectations for increased or decreased wages in the face of greater economic openness, yet studies testing such wage-based concerns identify a different divide as well: even after accounting for wage effects, women are typically more supportive of trade protection. We argue that trade-induced employment volatility and the resulting concerns for employment stability are overlooked factors that help explain the gender divide in attitudes. Due to both structural discrimination and societal norms, we theorize that working women are more responsive to the threat of trade-related employment instability than male counterparts. Using an experiment fielded on national samples in the USA and Canada, we find that most respondents have weak reactions to volatility, but volatility has a significant effect on women who are the most vulnerable to trade’s disruptive effects – those working in import-competing industries and those with limited education.

Highlights

What explains divides in the public’s support for trade protection? Traditional economic arguments have primarily focused on the wage effects of trade: due to skill level or sector of employment, some individuals may expect trade to increase demand for their labor and increase their wages while others fear that increased openness to international markets brings increased competition and lower wages
We sought to test whether the gender gap in trade support arose from differing evaluations of the costs and benefits from increased employment volatility generated by trade
We argued that due to structural discrimination and societal norms, women are more vulnerable to the risks of employment volatility

Summary

Introduction

What explains divides in the public’s support for trade protection? Traditional economic arguments have primarily focused on the wage effects of trade: due to skill level or sector of employment, some individuals may expect trade to increase demand for their labor and increase their wages while others fear that increased openness to international markets brings increased competition and lower wages. Analyzing these mechanisms allows us to test whether men and women react to trade-induced volatility in different ways, and whether such differences in employment concerns can explain the gender gap in trade attitudes.

Results

Conclusion