Labor-force participation rates and the informational value of unemployment rates: Evidence from disaggregated US data

Abstract

The informational value of the aggregate US unemployment rate has recently been questioned because of a unit root in the labor-force participation rate; the lack of mean reversion implies that long-run changes in unemployment rates are highly unlikely to reflect long-run changes in joblessness. This note shows that this critique also extends to unemployment rates for sub-populations, such as prime-aged males.