Labor force effects of Medicaid and Marketplace expansions: Variation by gender, parental status, and household structure

Abstract

AbstractWe revisit the Affordable Care Act (ACA)'s Medicaid expansion's labor market effects and build upon it by estimating effects of subsidized Marketplace insurance. Using American Community Survey data, we jointly model the effects of Medicaid and Marketplace expansion on labor force outcomes using simulated eligibility measures. Throughout our analysis, we focus on heterogeneity by gender, parental status, and single versus two‐headed households. Consequently, this is the first paper presenting labor outcomes of the ACA among women with children, an important group, which may be particularly responsive to increased flexibility in meeting income, childcare, and insurance needs. Even among women, we find little evidence that Medicaid eligibility reduced labor force participation. Any significant reductions among women are small in magnitude and not well corroborated by placebo tests. Alternatively, women with children gaining Marketplace eligibility had statistically significant reductions in labor force participation, reductions in hours, and increases in part‐time work.